Monday, February 28, 2011

Hype about conditional probability puzzles - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Hype about conditional probability puzzles - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Hype about conditional probability puzzles

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Jason Kottke posts this puzzle from Gary Foshee that reportedly impressed people at a puzzle-designers' convention:

I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys?

The first thing you think is "What has Tuesday got to do with it?" Well, it has everything to do with it.

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